F1 2025: Experts can’t agree and present two different scenarios for the future of the leaders

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For four years now, Max Verstappen has dominated Formula 1 without challenge. But as the 2025 season approaches, doubts are emerging: his team, Red Bull Racing, seems to be losing momentum, and its rivals are closing in fast.

Are we witnessing the end of an unprecedented reign, or can Verstappen prove once again that he remains the man to beat by securing his fifth Formula 1 World Championship title?

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Red Bull Racing under maximum pressure

According to former F1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya, the signs are clear: Red Bull no longer has the technical edge that allowed it to outclass its competitors. He believes the car is no longer as fast, and performances in the final Grands Prix of 2024 exposed weaknesses. “It will be very difficult for Max to keep his title if the team stays on this path,” Montoya says. Other teams, like McLaren and Ferrari, seem ready to seize their opportunity, and Mercedes could also return to the top with talented drivers and an aggressive strategy. For Verstappen, this means he might have to fight harder than ever to stay in the title race. And we know that when he’s under pressure, he’s more prone to mistakes that can cost him dearly, as seen at this year’s Austrian and Mexican Grands Prix.

Max Verstappen Abu Dhabi 2022 - © Getty Images Red Bull Content pool
Max Verstappen Abu Dhabi 2022 – © Getty Images Red Bull Content pool

Rivals sharper than ever

One of Red Bull’s biggest threats lies in the rise of its competitors. McLaren, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, has clear ambitions and a formidable driver duo. Ferrari, on the other hand, has made a bold move by pairing Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton. Helmut Marko, Red Bull’s advisor, anticipates internal rivalries within these teams, which could slow them down. However, these tensions shouldn’t overshadow one key fact: these teams have fast cars and drivers hungry for victories. Verstappen could face tougher competition than ever before, and even the slightest mistake could cost him dearly. With multiple teams competing for wins, it will be even harder to score points consistently, as circuits that don’t suit Ferrari’s car might be ideal for McLaren or Mercedes.

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Liam Lawson: a double-edged sword

In 2025, Verstappen will have a new teammate, Liam Lawson. Promising but still inexperienced, Lawson will be under pressure to support Red Bull in its fight for championships. Helmut Marko remains confident, stating that Lawson will know his place and won’t try to rival Verstappen. But this dynamic could also become an issue: without a teammate capable of sharing the points burden or pushing Verstappen to excel, Red Bull might lose its favorite status. Lawson’s cautious approach will need to quickly transform into strong performances if the team wants to remain competitive against rivals with two equally strong drivers. That wasn’t the case this year, and it’s likely one of the reasons why the Austrian team failed to secure the F1 Constructors’ Championship.

This article explores the potential end of Max Verstappen and Red Bull’s dominance in 2025, with a less competitive car, formidable opponents, and a new internal dynamic. As the Dutchman’s reign wavers, the future of Formula 1 might be heading toward an entirely different narrative.

Image: © Joerg Mitter – Red Bull Content pool

Adrien Conges
Adrien Conges
I grew up near Magny-Cours, an old Formula 1 circuit in France so I've been passionate about motorsport and automobiles since childhood. I currently live in Bordeaux, France and I'm still waiting for Ferrari to win a 17th F1 constructors' title.

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